AMERICAN  ECONOMIC  ASSOCIATION. 


Study  of  Statistics  in  Colleges. 


By  CARROLL  D.  WRIGHT. 


519.5 

W931s  AMERICAN  ECONOMIC  ASSOCIATION. 


THE  STUDY 


OF 


STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


BY 

CARROLL  D.  WRIGHT. 


A PAPER  READ  BEFORE  THE  JOINT  SESSION  OF  THE  AMERICAN 
ECONOMIC  ASSOCIATION  AND  THE  AMERICAN  HISTORICAL 
ASSOCIATION,  AT  SANDERS  THEATRE,  HARVARD 
UNIVERSITY,  MAY  24,  1887. 


BOSTON : 

WRIGHT  & POTTER  PRINTING  COMPANY, 

18  Post  Office  Square. 

1887. 


UNIVERSITY  01- 


ILLINOIS  LIBRARY 

AT  URBANA-CHAMPAIGW 
STACKS 


THE 


STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


BY  CARROLL  D.  WRIGHT. 


America  has  no  counterpart  to  the  continental  school  of  sta- 
tisticians, whose  members  have  entered  their  particular  field  of 
science  after  special  training  by  a systematic  course  of  instruc- 
tion. We  have  our  statisticians,  to  be  sure,  but  they  have 
taken  up  their  work  accidentally,  and  not  as  a profession.  Men 
engaged  in  the  practice  of  law  or  of  medicine,  or  in  the  other 
learned  professions,  enter  them  only  after  careful  preparation. 
Our  government  trains  its  soldiers  and  sailors  ; our  colleges  and 
higher  institutions  of  learning  fit  men  for  various  special  scien- 
tific and  professional  labors,  but  we  have  not  yet  reached  the 
advanced  stage  of  educational  work  in  this  country  which  com- 
prehends administration  in  its  broadest  terms.  The  European 
has  an  advantage  over  those  engaged  in  statistical  work  in  this 
country.  Many  of  the  leading  colleges  and  universities  of  the 
continent  make  special  effort  to  fit  men  to  adopt  statistical  sci- 
ence as  a branch  of  administration,  or  as  a profession. 

Korosi,  Neumann-Spallart,  Ernst  Engel,  Block,  Bohmert, 
Mayr,  Levasseur,  and  their  score  or  more  of  peers,  may  well 
excite  our  envy,  but  more  deeply  stimulate  the  regret  that  one 
of  their  number,  from  his  brilliant  training  and  his  scientific 
attainments,  can  not  present  to  you  today  the  necessity  of  copy- 
ing into  the  curricula  of  our  American  colleges  the  statistical 
features  of  the  foreign  school.  For  magnificent  achievement 
the  American  statistician  need  not  blush  in  the  presence  of  the 
trained  European,  for,  without  conceit,  we  can  place  the  name 
of  our  own  Walker  along  with  the  names  of  those  eminent  men 


4 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


I have  enumerated.  With  all  the  training  of  the  schools,  the 
European  statistician  lacks  the  grand  opportunities  which  are 
open  to  the  American.  Nowhere  has  the  former  been  able  to 
project  and  carry  out  a Census  involving  points  beyond  the 
simple  enumeration  of  the  people,  embracing  a few  inquiries 
relating  to  social  conditions  : such  inquiries  rarely  extending 
beyond  those  necessary  to  learn  the  ages,  places  of  birth,  and 
occupations  of  the  population.  Such  a Census,  compared  with 
the  ninth  and  tenth  Federal  enumerations  of  the  United  States, 
appears  but  child’s  play. 

Dr.  Engel  once  said  to  me  that  he  would  gladly  exchange 
the  training  of  the  Prussian  Bureau  of  Statistics  for  the  oppor- 
tunity to  accomplish  what  could  be  done  in  our  country.  For 
with  it  all,  he  could  not  carry  out  what  might  be  done  with 
comparative  ease  under  our  government.  The  European  sta- 
tistician is  constantly  cramped  by  his  government ; the  Ameri- 
can government  is  constantly  forced  by  the  people.  The  Par- 
liament of  Great  Britain  will  not  consent  to  an  industrial 
Census,  the  proposition  that  the  features  of  United  States 
Census  taking  be  incorporated  in  the  British  Census  being  de- 
feated as  regularly  as  offered.  Nor  does  any  continental  power 
yet  dare  to  make  extensive  inquiries  into  the  condition  of  the 
people,  or  relative  to  the  progress  of  their  industries.  The 
continental  school  of  statisticians,  therefore,  is  obliged  to  urge 
its  government  to  accomplish  results  familiar  to  our  people. 
The  statistics  of  births,  deaths,  and  marriages,  and  other 
purely  conventional  statistics,  are  substantially  all  that  come 
to  the  hands  of  the  official  statisticians  abroad.  In  this  coun- 
try, the  popular  demand  for  statistical  information  is  usually 
far  in  advance  of  the  governments,  either  State  or  Federal,  and 
so  our  American  statisticians  have  been  blessed  with  opportu- 
nities which  have  given  them  an  experience,  wider  in  its  scope, 
and  of  a far  more  reaching  character  than  has  attended  the  ef- 
forts of  the  continental  school.  Notwithstanding  these  oppor- 
tunities which  surround  official  statistics  in  this  country,  the 
need  of  special  scientific  training  for  men  in  the  administration 
of  statistical  work  is  great  indeed.  This  necessity  I hope  to 
show  before  I close. 

It  is  not  essential,  in  addressing  an  audience  of  this  charac- 
ter, to  spend  a moment  even  upon  definitions.  The  importance 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


5 


of  statistics  must  be  granted  : the  uses  of  the  science  admitted. 
But  it  may  be  well,  before  urging  specifically  the  needs  of  this 
country  for  statistical  training,  to  give  a few  facts  relative  to 
such  work  in  European  schools.* 

The  best  school  for  statistical  science  in  Europe  is  connected 
with  the  Prussian  statistical  bureau,  and  was  established  a 
quarter  of  a century  ago  by  Dr.  Ernst  Engel,  the  late  head  of 
the  bureau,  probably  the  ablest  living  statistician  in  the  old 
world.  The  seminary  of  this  statistical  bureau  is  a training 
school,  for  university  graduates  of  the  highest  ability,  in  the 
art  of  administration,  and  in  the  conduct  of  statistical  and  other 
economic  inquiries  that  are  of  interest  and  importance  to  the 
government.  The  practical  work  is  done  in  connection  with 
the  government  offices,  among  which  advanced  students  are 
distributed  with  specific  tasks.  Systematic  instruction  is  given 
by  lectures,  and  by  the  seminary  or  laboratory  method,  under 
a general  director.  Government  officers  and  university  pro- 
fessors are  engaged  to  give  regular  courses  to  these  advanced 
students.  It  is  considered  one  of  the  greatest  student  honors 
in  Berlin  for  a university  graduate  to  be  admitted  to  the  Sta- 
tistical Seminary.  One  graduate  of  the  Johns  Hopkins  Uni- 
versity, a doctor  of  philosophy,  is  already  under  a course  of 
instruction  in  the  Prussian  laboratory  of  political  science. 

The  work  of  taking  the  Census  of  the  Prussian  population 
and  resources  is  entrusted  to  educated  men,  many  of  them 
trained  to  scientific  accuracy  by  long  discipline  in  the  Statistical 
Seminary,  and  by  practical  experience.  (Circulars  of  Infor- 
mation, U.  S.  Bureau  of  Education.  No.  1,  1887,  by  H.  B. 
Adams.) 

In  this  seminary  there  are  practical  exercises  under  the  sta- 
tistical bureau  during  the  day  time,  with  occasional  excursions 
to  public  institutions,  in  addition  to  lectures  held  mostly  in 
the  evening.  A recent  programme  of  the  seminary  compre- 
hends : 

1.  Theory,  technique,  and  encyclopaedia  : once  a week. 

2.  Statistics  of  population  and  of  dwellings  : once  a week. 


* President  Walker,  of  the  Institute  of  Technology ; Dr.  Ely,  of  Johns  Hopkins ; 
Prof.  Smith,  of  Columbia  College ; Dr.  Dewey,  of  the  Institute  of  Technology ; and  Dr. 
E.  R.  L.  Gould,  of  Washington,  have  very  kindly  placed  at  my  disposal  information 
supplemental  to  that  which  was  at  hand. 


6 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


3.  Medical  statistics  : once  a week. 

4.  Applied  mathematical  statistics  : once  a week. 

5.  Agrarian  statistics  : once  a week. 

6.  Exercises  in  political  economy,  finance,  and  financial 

statistics  : 2 hours  a week. 

The  students  assist  in  the  work  of  the  statistical  bureau  with- 
out compensation.  This  is  a part  of  their  training,  and  by  it 
theory  and  practice  are  most  successfully  combined. 

I believe  there  are  courses  in  statistics  in  nearly  all  the 
universities  in  Germany,  certainly  in  the  more  prominent 
institutions  of  that  country,  but  there  are  no  distinct  chairs  of 
statistics.  Statistical  .science  is  considered  a part  of  political 
economy,  and  professors  of  the  latter  science  give  the  instruc- 
tion in  statistics. 

The  most  prominent  announcements  for  the  leading  European 
universities,  for  the  year  1886-7,  are  as  follows : 

University  of  Leipzig  : Professor  W.  Roscher  lectures  on  agricultural 
statistics,  this  branch  being  a part  of  one  course,  taking  one  or 
two  hours  a week.  One  hour  a week  is  also  given  to  political 
economy  and  statistical  exercises  by  Dr.  K.  Walker. 

University  of  Tubingen  : Professor  Gustav  yon  Riimelin  devotes  three 
hours  a week  to  social  statistics,  while  Professor  Lorey  includes 
in  his  lectures  a treatment  of  the  statistics  of  forests. 

University  of  Wurzburg : Professor  G.  Schanz  devotes  four  hours  a 
week  to  general  statistics. 

University  of  Dorpat  (a  German  institution  in  Russia)  : Professor 
Al.  v.  Oettingen  teaches  ethical  statistics  two  hours  each  week. 
University  of  Breslau : Professor  W.  Lexis  uses  one  hour  a week  on 
the  statistics  of  population. 

University  of  Halle  : Professor  Conrad  has  a seminary  of  five  hours 
a week,  in  which  statistical  subjects,  among  others,  are  carefully 
treated. 

University  of  Kiel : Professor  W.  Seelig  devotes  four  hours  a week  to 
general  statistics,  and  statistics  of  Germany. 

University  of  Konigsberg : Professor  L.  Elster  lectures  two  hours  a 
week  on  the  theory  of  statistics. 

University  of  Munich : Dr.  Neuberg  has  a course  of  one  to  two  hours 
a week  on  statistics. 

University  of  Strasburg : Professor  G.  F.  Knapp  teaches  the  theory 
and  practice  of  statistics  three  hours  a week,  and  with  Professor 
Brentano  has  a seminary  two  hours  a week,  in  which,  among 
other  matters,  they  treat  statistical  subjects. 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


7 


University  of  Prague  : Professor  Surnegg-Marburg  teaches  the  statis- 
tics of  European  States  three  hours  each  week. 

University  of  Vienna : Professor  von  Inama-Sternegg  devotes  two 
hours  each  week  in  a statistical  seminary. 

In  addition  to  the  university  work  outlined,  much  work  is 
done  in  the  technical  schools,  as,  for  instance,  at  the  technical 
school  in  Vienna  there  are  given  regularly  two  courses  of  sta- 
tistics : 

First,  “General  comparative  statistics  of  European  States;”  their 
surface ; population ; industries,  commerce,  education,  etc. 
Second,  “Industrial  statistics  of  European  States;”  methods  and 
“ technik”  of  industrial  statistics. 

These  courses  are  given  by  Dr.  von  Brachelli,  who  is  offi- 
cially connected  with  the  Government  Bureau  of  Statistics. 

At  Dresden,  Dr.  Bohmert  lectures  at  the  Polytechnic  on 
“The  elements  of  statistics,”  and  has  a statistical  seminary. 
Bohmert  is  the  director  of  the  statistical  bureau  in  the  depart- 
ment of  the  interior.  Part  of  the  instruction  is  given  at  the 
bureau.  Courses  are  also  given  at  Zurich  on  the  elements  of 
statistics. 

Some  of  the  more  important  announcements  connected  with 
the  Ecole  Libre  des  Sciences  Politiques,  of  Paris,  for  the  year 
1886-7,  are  as  follows  : 

1.  By  Professor  Levasseur,  the  theory  of  statistics,  and  the  move- 
ment of  population,  one  hour  a week  for  the  first  quarter. 

2.  By  M.  de  Foville,  Chief  of  the  Bureau  of  Statistics,  one  hour  a 
week  in  the  second  quarter  upon  statistics,  commerce,  and  statis- 
tics of  foreign  commerce. 

3.  By  Professor  Pigeonneau,  one  exercise  each  week,  in  which  he 
treats,  among  other  subjects,  of  commercial  statistics. 

In  the  programme  of  the  University  of  Brussels,  for  1878 
and  1879,  an  announcement  for  a course  of  political  economy 
and  statistics  twice  each  week,  by  Professor  A.  Orts,  was 
made. 

Something  is  being  done  in  Italy,  but  how  much  I am  not 
at  present  able  to  learn. 

These  courses,  it  will  be  seen,  are  devised  for  the  special 
training  in  the  practical  statistics  of  the  countries  named. 


8 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


A great  deal  of  effort  has  been  expended  in  Europe  through 
statistical  congresses  since  1853  to  secure  uniform  inquiries 
in  Census  taking,  and  it  is  to  be  regretted  that  the  Congresses 
have  not  accomplished  the  results  sought.  It  was  unfortunate 
that  the  attention  of  the  statisticians  of  the  world,  as  brought 
together  in  the  congresses,  was  given  to  the  form  of  inquiry 
to  the  exclusion  of  the  form  of  presentation.  In  tracing 
the  discussions  and  deliberations  of  these  congresses,  the 
absence  of  the  intelligent  treatment  of  the  presentation  of 
facts,  even  when  drawn  out  by  uniform  inquiries,  becomes 
apparent.  The  art  of  the  statistician  in  his  administrative 
work  found  but  little  encouragement  in  the  long  discussions 
on  forms  of  inquiry,  and  less  was  accomplished  by  these 
congresses,  which  are  not  now  held,  than  has  been  ac- 
complished through  training  in  the  universities  of  Europe. 
The  great  statistical  societies  abroad  have  done  much  in  stimu- 
lating statistical  science,  and  out  of  these  societies  there  has 
now  been  organized  the  International  Statistical  Institute,  the 
first  session  of  which  was  held  in  Rome  during  last  month ; 
much  is  to  be  hoped  from  the  labors  of  this  Institute,  for  the 
men  who  compose  it  bring  both  training  and  experience  to  the 
great  task  of  unifying  statistical  inquiries  and  presentations,  so 
far  as  leading  generic  facts  are  concerned,  for  the  great  coun- 
tries comprehended  under  the  broad  term,  “the  civilized 
world.”  For  this  great  array  of  work,  the  outlines  of  which  I 
have  briefly  and  imperfectly  given  as  carried  on  in  Europe, 
America  has  no  parallel. 

Our  colleges  are  beginning  to  feel  that  they  have  some  duty 
to  perform,  in  the  work  of  fitting  men  for  the  field  of  admin- 
istration, and  specifically  in  statistical  science.  Dr.  Ely  is 
doing  something  at  Johns  Hopkins,  giving  some  time,  in  one  of 
his  courses  on  political  economy,  to  the  subject  of  statistics, 
explaining  its  theory,  tracing  the  history  of  the  art  or  science, 
and  describing  the  literature  of  the  subject.  He  attempts,  in 
brief,  to  point  out  the  vast  importance  of  statistics  to  the  stu- 
dent of  social  science  and  to  put  his  student  in  such  a position 
that  he  can  practically  continue  his  study.  Johns  Hopkins,  as 
soon  as  circumstances  will  admit,  will  probably  secure  teachers 
of  statistics  and  administration,  in  addition  to  its  present  corps 
of  instructors. 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


9 


Dr.  Davis  R.  Dewey,  of  the  Massachusetts  Institute  of  Tech- 
nology, is  also  devoting  some  time,  in  connection  with  his  other 
work,  to  statistical  science.  He  has  two  courses  : 

First,  A course  of  statistics  and  graphic  methods  of  illus- 
trating statistics  in  which  attention  is  chiefly  given  to  the  uses 
of  official  statistics  of  the  United  States.  Students  are  directed 
to  the  limitations  there  are  in  this  respect,  what  compilations 
have  been  and  are  made,  and  to  the  possible  reconciliation  of 
discrepancies  which  appear  in  official  reports.  This  course  is 
taken  in  connection  with  a course  in  United  States  finance,  and 
the  student  is  trained  to  find  and  use  the  statistics  which  will 
illustrate  the  points  taken  up,  and  to  present  them  graphically. 

Second,  An  advanced  course  is  given  in  statistics  of  sociology, 
in  which  social,  moral,  and  physiological  statistics  are  con- 
sidered, in  short,  all  those  facts  of  life  which  admit  of  mathemati- 
cal determination  to  express  the  “average  man.”  Some  of 
Dr.  Dewey’s  actual  problems  may  serve  to  illustrate  the  prac- 
tical work  of  his  course.  Samples  of  the  problems  which  he 
gives  to  his  students  are  as  follows : 

Are  the  Indians  increasing  or  decreasing  in  numbers  ? 

Criticize  by  illustrations  the  statement  that  the  value  of  the  products 
of  manufactures  of  the  United  States  in  1880  was  $5,369,325,442. 

What  margin  of  error  would  you  allow,  if  called  upon  to  test  the 
accuracy  of  the  returns  of  population  under  one  year  of  age  in  the 
Federal  Census  returns? 

Can  you  devise  a method  to  determine  from  the  Census  reports  on 
population,  Table  XXI.,  which  is  the  healthier  state,  Massachusetts 
or  Connecticut? 

Is  it  true  that  Massachusetts  has  more  crime  per  capita  than  Ala- 
bama or  Georgia  ? Can  you  offer  any  explanation  or  facts  modifying 
such  a statistical  conclusion  ? Do  the  Census  reports  afford  informa- 
tion as  to  the  increase  or  decrease  in  crime  ? 

Perhaps  the  most  systematic  teaching  of  the  science  of  statis- 
tics in  America  is  given  at  Columbia  College,  under  the  direction 
of  Professor  Richmond  M.  Smith.  He  has  lectured  on  the  sub- 
ject of  statistical  science  in  the  Columbia  College  School  of 
Political  Science  since  the  year  1882.  His  course  is  an  advanced 
one  for  the  students  of  the  second  or  third  year  of  that  school. 
In  the  first  year  of  the  work  there  were  but  three  students  of  sta- 


10  THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 

tistical  science  ; at  present  there  are  about  twenty-five.  Profes- 
sor Smith  gives  them  lectures  two  hours  per  week  through  the 
greater  part  of  the  year.  The  theoretical  lectures  cover  a brief 
history  of  statistics  ; a consideration  of  statistical  methods  ; of 
the  connection  of  statistical  science  with  political  and  social 
science  ; of  the  attempt  to  establish  social  laws  from  statistical 
induction;  the  doctrine  of  probabilities,  etc.,  this  part  of  the 
course  being  based  on  German  and  French  writers,  princi- 
pally Mayr,  Engel,  Wagner,  Knapp,  Oettingen,  Quetelet, 
Block,  and  others.  The  practical  part  of  the  Columbia  course 
covers  the  ordinary  topics  of  statistical  investigation,  and  the 
statistics  are  taken,  as  far  as  possible,  from  official  publications. 
These  latter  lectures  are  of  course  comments  on  the  tables  and 
diagrams  themselves.  Wall  tables  are  used  to  a certain  extent, 
but  experience  has  found  it  more  convenient  to  lithograph  the 
tables  and  diagrams,  giving  a copy  to  each  student,  which  he 
can  place  in  his  note-book,  and  thus  save  the  labor  of  copying. 

From  a circular  of  information  from  the  Columbia  College 
School  of  Political  Science  I find  the  following,  relating  to  the 
teaching  of  statistical  science  : 

“ Statistical  science:  methods  and  results.  This  course  is  intended 
to  furnish  a basis  for  a social  science  by  supplementing  the  histor- 
ical, legal,  and  economic  knowledge  already  gained,  by  such  a 
knowledge  of  social  phenomena  as  can  be  gained  only  by  statistical 
observation.  Under  the  head  of  statistics  of  population  are  con- 
sidered : race  and  ethnological  distinctions,  nationality,  density, 
city  and  country,  sex,  age,  occupation,  religion,  education,  births, 
deaths,  marriages,  mortality  tables,  emigration,  etc.  Under  economic 
statistics : land,  production  of  food,  raw  material,  labor,  wages, 
capital,  means  of  transportation,  shipping,  prices,  etc.  Under  the 
head  of  moral  statistics  are  considered : statistics  of  suicide,  vice, 
crime  of  all  kinds,  causes  of  crime,  condition  of  criminals,  repression 
of  crime,  penalties  and  effect  of  penalties,  etc.  Finally  is  considered 
the  method  of  statistical  observations,  the  value  of  the  results  ob- 
tained, the  doctrine  of  free  will,  and  the  possibility  of  discovering 
social  laws.” 

There  may  be  other  instances  of  the  teaching  of  statistical 
science  in  American  colleges,  but  those  given  are  all  that  have 
come  to  my  knowledge.  At  Harvard,  Yale,  and  other  institu- 
tions the  theory  and  importance  of  statistics  are  incidentally 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


11 


impressed  upon  the  students  in  political  economy.  It  will  be 
seen,  therefore,  that  if  there  is  any  necessity  for  such  a course 
as  has  been  cited,  the  necessity  is  being  met  only  in  slight 
degree. 

Is  there  such  a necessity?  Speaking  from  experience  I 
answer  emphatically,  Yes.  There  has  not  been  a single  day  in 
the  fourteen  years  that  I have  devoted  to  practical  statistics 
that  I have  not  felt  the  need,  not  only  in  myself,  but  in  the 
offices  where  my  work  has  been  carried  on,  of  statistical  train- 
ing. Trained  not  only  in  the  sense  of  school  training,  but  in 
the  sense  of  that  training  which  has  come  to  our  American  sta- 
tisticians only  through  experience.  My  great  regret  on  this 
occasion  is  that  I can  only  address  you  with  the  statistical 
bureau  as  my  alma  mater,  but  perhaps  the  lack  I have  seen  and 
felt  of  a different  alma  mater  may  give  force  to  my  suggestions. 

The  problems  which  the  statistician  must  solve,  if  they  are 
solved  at  all,  are  pressing  upon  the  world.  Many  chapters 
of  political  economy  must  be  rewritten,  for  the  study  of 
political  economy  is  now  brought  under  the  historical  and 
comparative  method  and  statistical  science  constitutes  the 
greatest  auxiliary  of  such  a method.  There  is  so  much  that  is 
false  that  creeps  into  the  popular  mind,  which  can  only  be  recti- 
fied through  the  most  trustworthy  statistical  knowledge,  that 
the  removal  of  apprehension  alone  by  it  creates  a necessity 
sufficient  to  command  the  attention  of  college  authorities.  The 
great  questions  of  the  day,  the  labor  question,  temperance, 
tariff  reform,  all  great  topics,  demand  the  auxiliary  aid  of  sci- 
entific statistics,  and  a thorough  training  is  essential  for  their 
proper  use.  But  in  the  first  place  there  should  be  a clear  under- 
standing of  what  is  necessary  to  be  taught.  We  read  many 
chapters  on  the  theory  and  practice  of  statistics.  What  is  the 
theory  of  statistics  ? The  use  of  the  word  theory , in  connec- 
tion with  statistical  science,  is  to  my  mind  unfortunate,  for  the 
word  theory,  when  used  in  connection  with  positive  informa 
tion,  antagonizes  the  public  mind.  When  you  speak  of  the 
theory  of  statistics,  the  word  theory  meaning  speculation,  the 
popular  feeling  is  that  theoretical  statistics  are  not  wanted, 
but  facts.  Theory  may  be  fact ; statistics  may  substantiate 
theory  or  controvert  it.  All  this  we  know,  and  yet  I feel  that 
the  word  is  used  unfortunately  in  this  connection.  If  I under- 


12 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


stand  it  correctly,  the  theory  of  statistics  is  simply  a statement 
of  what  it  is  desired  to  accomplish  by  statistics. 

Every  branch  of  social  science  desires  to  explain  the  facts  of 
human  life.  There  are  some  facts  which  can  be  explained 
only  by  statistics.  For  instance,  it  is  asserted  that  there  is  an 
alarming  amount  of  illiteracy  in  Massachusetts.  Statistical 
inquiry  shows  that  by  far  the  greater  number  of  these  illiterates 
are  of  foreign  birth,  so  that  the  fault  is  not  with  the  public 
school  system,  but  the  evil  is  due  to  a temporary  cause,  namely, 
immigration. 

Again,  it  has  been  freely  asserted  that  in  the  United  States 
women  of  native  birth  do  not  have  as  many  children  as  women 
of  foreign  birth,  and  that  thereby  the  real  American  popula- 
tion is  steadily  losing  ground.  The  Census  of  Massachusetts 
will  show  that  although  American  women  do  have  a less  num- 
ber of  children,  on  the  average,  yet  a larger  number  survive, 
so  that  the  alarm  is  needless.  Common  observation  would 
never  have  shown  these  things,  or  would  not  have  shown  them 
accurately. 

So  everywhere  statistics  attempt  to  explain  the  facts  of 
human  life,  which  can  be  explained  in  no  other  way,  as  for 
instance,  the  effect  of  scarcity  of  food  on  births,  on  marriages, 
or  crime ; the  effect  of  marriage  laws  on  the  frequency  of 
divorce,  etc.  The  theory  of  statistics  points  out  where  the 
statistical  method  is  applicable,  and  what  it  can  and  cannot 
accomplish.  In  my  opinion,  however,  it  would  be  better  to 
avoid  the  use  of  the  word  theory  entirely,  and  adopt  a concrete 
term  like  statistical  science,  which  has  three  branches  : collec- 
tion, presentation,  and  analysis.  Statistics  is  a science  in  its 
nature,  and  practical  in  its  working. 

The  science  of  statistics,  practically  considered,  compre- 
hends the  gathering  of  original  data  in  the  most  complete  and 
accurate  manner ; the  tabulation  of  the  information  gathered 
by  the  most  approved  methods,  and  the  presentation  of  the 
results  in  compact  and  easily  understood  tables,  with  the  neces- 
sary text  explanations.  It  is  the  application  of  statistics  which 
gives  them  their  chief  popular  value,  and  this  application  may, 
therefore,  legitimately  be  called  a part  of  the  science  of  statis- 
tics. The  theoretical  statistician  is  satisfied  if  his  truth  is  the 
result  of  statistical  investigation,  or  if  his  theory  is  sustained. 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


13 


The  practical  statistician  is  only  satisfied  when  the  absolute 
truth  is  shown,  or,  if  this  is  impossible,  when  the  nearest 
approximation  to  it  is  reached.  But  the  belief  that  theory 
must  be  sustained  by  the  statistics  collected,  or  else  the  statis- 
tics be  condemned,  is  an  idea  which  gets  into  the  popular  mind 
when  the  expression,  theory  of  statistics,  is  used.  I would, 
therefore,  avoid  it,  and  I hope  that  should  our  colleges  adopt 
courses  in  statistical  science,  they  will  agree  upon  a nomencla- 
ture which  shall  be  expressive,  easily  understood,  and  compre- 
hensive in  its  nature. 

The  necessity  of  the  study  of  statistical  science  would  not 
be  so  thoroughly  apparent  if  the  science  was  confined  to  the 
simple  enumeration  and  presentation  of  things,  or  primitive 
facts,  like  the  number  of  the  people ; to  tables  showing  crops, 
exports,  imports,  immigration,  quantities,  values,  valuation, 
and  such  elementary  statements,  involving  only  the  skill  of  the 
arithmetician  to  present  and  deal  with  them.  The  moment  the 
combinations  essential  for  comparison  are  made,  there  is  needed 
something  beyond  the  arithmetician,  for  with  the  production  of 
averages,  percentages,  and  ratios,  for  securing  correct  results, 
there  must  come  in  play  mathematical  genius,  and  a genius  in 
the  exercise  of  which  there  should  be  discernible  no  influence 
from  preconceived  ideas.  The  science  of  statistics  has  been 
handled  too  often  without  statistical  science,  and  without  the 
skill  of  the  mathematician.  Many  illustrations  of  this  point 
involving  the  statistics  of  this  country  could  be  given. 

In  collating  statistics  relating  to  the  cost  of  production,  the 
best  mathematical  skill  is  essential,  even  the  skill  which  would 
employ  algebraic  formulae.  So  with  relation  to  statistics  of 
capital  invested  in  production.  To  illustrate,  the  question  may 
be  asked,  what  elements  of  capital  are  involved  in  the  Census 
question  of  ‘ ‘ capital  invested  ” ? Is  it  simply  the  cash  capital 
invested  by  the  concern  under  consideration,  or  is  it  all  the 
money  which  is  used  to  produce  a given  quantity  of  goods  ? 
If  the  members  of  a firm  contribute  the  sum  of  $10,000,  and 
they  have  a line  of  discounts  of  $100,000,  the  avails  of  which 
are  used  in  producing  $200,000  worth  of  completed  goods,  what 
is  the  capital  invested?  What  is  the  capital  invested  which 
should  be  returned  in  the  Census?  If  a man  has  $5,000  in- 
vested in  his  business  as  a manufacturer,  and  he  buys  his  goods 


14 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


on  90  days,  or  four  months,  and  sells  for  cash,  or  30  days, 
what  is  his  capital  invested?  This  question  is  one  among 
many  of  the  practical  problems  that  arise  in  a statistical  bureau 
but  which  has  not  yet  been  treated  scientifically.  What  has 
been  the  result  of  the  reported  statistics  relating  to  capital  in- 
vested? Simply  that  calculations,  deductions,  and  arguments 
based  on  such  statistics  have  been,  and  are,  vicious,  and  will 
be  until  all  the  elements  involved  in  the  term  are  scientifi- 
cally classified.  Another  illustration  in  point  arises  in  connec- 
tion with  the  presentation  of  divorce  statistics,  especially  when 
it  is  desired  to  compare  such  statistics  with  marriages,  or  to 
make  comparisons  to  show  the  progress,  or  the  movement  of 
divorces.  Shall  the  number  of  divorces  be  compared  with 
the  number  of  marriages  celebrated  in  the  year  in  which  the 
divorces  are  granted,  or  with  the  population,  or  with  the  num- 
ber of  married  couples  living  at  the  time  ? I need  not  multiply 
illustrations.  The  lies  of  statistics  are  unscientific  lies. 

The  conditions  of  this  country  necessitate  knowledge  as  to 
the  parent  nativity  of  the  population,  features  not  included  in 
any  foreign  Census,  and  need  not  be.  Such  features  lead  to 
what  may  be  called  correlated  statistics ; for  instance,  where 
there  are  presented  three  or  more  facts  relating  to  each  person 
in  the  population,  the  facts  being  co-ordinate  in  their  nature. 
In  this  class  of  work  skill  beyond  that  which  belongs  to  the 
simple  operations  in  arithmetic  becomes  necessary.  There 
must  be  employed  some  knowledge  of  statistical  science  beyond 
elementary  statistical  tables,  or  the  correlations  will  be  faulty, 
all  the  conclusions  drawn  from  them  false,  and  harm  done  to 
the  public.  While  the  scientific  statistician  does  not  care  to 
reach  conclusions  from  insufficient  data,  he  much  less  desires 
to  be  misled  by  the  unscientific  use  of  correct  data,  or  from  data 
the  presentation  of  which  has  been  burdened  with  disturbing 
causes.  The  analytical  work  of  statistical  science  demands 
the  mathematical  man.  While  this  is  true,  it  is  also  true  that 
the  man  who  casts  a schedule  (for  instance,  to  comprehend  the 
various  economic  facts  associated  with  production),  should 
have  the  ability  to  analyze  the  tabulated  results  of  the  answers 
to  the  inquiries  borne  upon  the  schedule.  In  other  words,  the 
man  who  casts  the  schedule  should  not  only  be  able  to  foresee 
the  work  of  the  enumerator,  or  the  gatherer  of  the  answers 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


15 


desired,  but  he  should  foresee  the  actual  form  in  which  the 
completed  facts  should  be  presented.  Furthermore,  he  should 
foresee  the  analysis  which  such  facts  stimulate  and  not  only 
foresee  the  detail,  but  foresee  in  a comprehensive  way  the 
whole  superstructure  which  grows  from  the  foundation  laid  in 
the  schedule.  He  should  comprehend  his  completed  report 
before  he  gathers  the  needed  information. 

How  can  these  elements  in  one’s  statistical  education  be 
secured?  The  difficulties  in  the  way  of  the  best  statistical 
work  are  not  slight.  Dr.  Dewey,  in  a recent  address  upon 
average  prices,  before  the  American  Statistical  Association,  gave 
an  exceedingly  valuable,  and  a very  clear  explanation  of  the 
difficulties  wThich  underlie  all  efforts  to  secure  average  prices 
ranging  over  a period  of  years ; he  pointed  out  the  different 
methods  of  securing  such  averages,  and  I can  do  no  better 
than  to  use  Dr.  Dewey’s  own  words,  as  taken  from  the  address 
referred  to.  He  says  : 

“There  is  first  the  ordinary  ‘ index  method  ’ introduced  by  Mr. 
Newmarch,  and  continued  by  the  Economist  and  Mr.  Jevons.  In 
this  there  is  no  attempt  to  take  account  of  the  varying  importance  of 
the  commodities  where  prices  are  averaged  together,  but  equal  con- 
sideration is  given  to  all. 

“ A second  method  is  to  give  each  commodity,  where  price  enters 
into  the  averages,  a weight  proportionate  to  the  quantity  of  it  sold 
during  a fixed  period  of  time. 

‘ 4 In  the  third  method  account  is  taken  of  the  varying  importance 
of  the  commodities  by  regarding  the  part  each  plays  in  the  exports 
and  imports  of  a country.  This  system  has  been  used  by  Messrs. 
Giffen  and  Mulhall.  Mr.  Giffen’s  process  in  detail  is  to  find  the 
average  value  of  the  different  articles  in  the  exports  and  imports  ; 
combine  these  in  the  proportions  of  the  different  articles  to  the  totals 
of  the  exports  and  imports,  and  then  reduce  the  totals  for  a series  of 
years  to  the  values  they  would  have  been  equivalent  to  had  prices 
remained  unchanged.” 

This  simply  indicates  that  no  statistician  has  yet  arrived  at 
a method  for  securing  average  prices  that  shall  be  considered 
absolutely  correct;  that  is,  in  other  words,  the  science  of 
average  prices  has  not  been  reached,  because,  if  it  had  been, 
there  would  be  but  one  method  of  securing  them.  There  is 
but  one  multiplication  table ; all  men  agree  to  it,  because  every 


16 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


part  of  it  has  been  demonstrated  to  be  true.  The  principle  of 
the  multiplication  table  in  statistical  operations  indicates  that 
science  triumphs,  for  no  scientific  conclusion  is  reached  so  long 
as  skilled  men,  men  of  experience  and  of  training,  differ  relative 
to  methods  or  results. 

The  teaching  of  statistical  science  in  our  colleges  involves 
three  grand  divisions  : 

1.  The  basis  of  statistical  science,  or,  as  it  has  been  generally 
termed  in  college  work,  the  theory  of  statistics. 

2.  Tlie  practice  of  statistics,  which  involves  the  preparation  of 
inquiries,  the  collection  and  examination  of  the  information  sought, 
and  the  tabulation  and  presentation  of  results. 

3.  The  analytical  treatment  of  the  results  secured. 

These  three  general  elements  become  more  important  as  the 
science  of  statistics  becomes  more  developed  ; that  is,  while  in 
conventional  statistics,  or  official  statistics  if  you  prefer,  mean- 
ing those  which  result  from  continuous  entry  of  the  facts  con- 
nected with  routine  transactions,  like  custom  house  operations, 
the  registration  of  births,  deaths,  and  marriages,  etc.,  these 
three  elements  may  not  be  apparent.  But  when  considered  as 
regards  the  collection  of  information  from  original  sources  by 
special  investigation  through  the  Census,  through  our  bureaus 
of  statistics  of  labor  and  kindred  offices,  and  through  the 
consular  service,  these  three  grand  elements  assume  a vast 
importance,  and  statistical  science  demands  that  men  be  em- 
ployed who  comprehend  thoroughly  and  clearly  all  the  features 
of  the  three  elements  of  the  science,  for  the  variety  of  facts  to 
be  collected  suggests  the  variety  of  features  connected  with  the 
work. 

Last  year  I had  the  honor  to  address  the  American  Social 
Science  Association  upon  popular  instruction  in  social  science, 
advocating  the  teaching  in  the  public  schools  of  the  elementary 
principles  of  social  science,  comprehending  those  things  which 
are  most  essential  in  the  conduct  of  life,  in  the  preservation 
of  health,  and  in  the  securing  of  good  order.  The  Associa- 
tion discussed  the  practicability  of  teaching  social  science  in 
our  higher  institutions  of  learning.  The  suggestion  that  the 
school  and  the  college  be  utilized  for  propagating  the  science 
was  met  with  but  one  objection  of  any  moment.  This  objection 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


17 


was  that  in  the  colleges  and  schools  the  whole  time  is  now 
exhausted  in  teaching  the  branches  of  human  knowledge 
already  established  as  a part  of  the  curricula  of  such  schools  ; 
an  excellent  objection  from  a narrow  point  of  view,  but  a 
thoroughly  inadmissible  objection  from  a point  of  view  which 
takes  in  the  development  of  the  human  race  on  the  best 
basis,  and  on  a high  standard.  It  was  met  by  the  counter- 
statement that  if  there  is  no  time  in  the  ordinary  college 
to  teach  all  that  the  college  now  teaches,  and  devote  a few 
hours  per  week  to  social  science,  and  all  that  social  science 
means,  so  far  as  teaching  is  concerned,  then  drop  something 
else  and  introduce  the  social  science.  But  nothing  need  be 
dropped  in  order  to  teach  social  science  in  the  colleges  and 
schools  of  the  country.  Now,  the  only  objection  which  I antici- 
pate to  the  teaching  of  statistics  in  our  colleges  is  the  same 
that  was  made  to  the  proposition  to  teach  social  science  gener- 
ally in  such  institutions,  that  there  is  no  room  for  the  introduc- 
tion of  instruction  in  the  new  science.  To  my  own  mind  this 
objection  is  not  only  trivial,  but  of  no  account  whatever  in 
the  practical  working  of  institutions  of  learning.  Every  well 
appointed  college  has  its  chair  of  political  economy,  and  this 
department  can  be  broadened  sufficiently  to  take  in  statistical 
science,  without  impairing  efficiency  in  this  or  any  other  depart- 
ment. If  this  cannot  be  done,  then  I would  say  to  the  colleges 
of  America  that  the  institutions  which  soonest  grasp  the  pro- 
gressive educational  work  of  the  day  will  be  the  most  successful 
competitors  in  the  race.  That  college  which  comprehends  that 
it  is  essential  to  fit  men  for  the  best  administrative  duties,  not 
only  in  government,  but  in  the  great  business  enterprises  which 
demand  leaders  of  as  high  quality  as  those  essential  for  a chief 
magistrate,  will  receive  the  patronage,  the  commendation,  and 
the  gratitude  of  the  public.  The  college  or  the  university 
which  comprehends  the  demand  of  the  day  and  institutes  new 
forms  of  degrees  to  be  conferred  upon  the  men  and  women 
specially  qualified  in  special  science  is  in  the  van.  Why  should 
there  not  be  a degree  for  sanitary  science  ? Why  should  there 
not  be  a degree  for  social  science  ? Doctor  of  Philosophy  is 
not  enough ; it  means  nothing  in  popular  estimation.  The 
Doctor  of  Philosophy  must  understand  various  things  ; must  be 
taught  and  thoroughly  trained  in  the  branches  necessary  to 


18 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


secure  the  degree  of  Doctor  of  Philosophy,  but  he  may  know 
nothing  of  other  branches  of  human  knowledge,  except  in  the 
most  incidental  way,  which  are  so  essential  to  fit  him  for 
the  best  administrative  duties.  The  organization  of  industry 
demands  the  very  highest  type  of  mind.  I sometimes  think 
that  the  great  industrial  chieftains  of  the  world  are  far  superior 
in  their  capacity,  and  in  their  general  comprehensive  ability, 
to  the  great  statesmen,  to  the  great  leaders  of  politics,  and 
the  great  lights  that  carry  nations  through  crises  even.  The 
men  who  are  the  best  trained,  who  have  learned  the  practical 
work  of  special  sciences,  are  the  ones  that  are  guiding  the  peo- 
ple, and  so  the  colleges  or  the  universities  which  grasp  these 
things,  introducing  the  teaching  of  statistical  science  along  with 
all  the  other  great  features  of  social  science,  including  the 
branches  which  bring  knowledge  nearest  to  the  community 
itself,  are  the  colleges  which  will  secure  success ; and  not  only 
success  in  a pecuniary  point  of  view,  but  success  in  that  grander 
field  of  the  best  work  for  the  race.  I urge,  therefore,  that  our 
American  colleges  follow  the  example  of  European  institutions. 
I would  urge  upon  the  government  of  the  United  States,  and 
upon  the  government  of  the  States,  the  necessity  of  providing 
by  law  for  the  admission  of  students  that  have  taken  scientific 
courses  in  statistics  as  honorary  attaches  of,  or  clerks  to  be 
employed  in  the  practical  work  of,  statistical  offices.  This  is 
easily  done  without  expenditure  by  the  government,  but  with 
the  very  best  economic  results. 

We  take  a Census  in  the  United  States  every  ten  years,  but 
as  a rule  the  men  that  are  brought  into  the  work  know  nothing 
of  statistics  : they  should  be  trained  in  the  very  elementary 
work  of  Census  taking  and  of  statistical  science.  How  much 
more  economical  for  the  government  to  keep  its  experienced 
statisticians  busily  employed  in  the  interim  of  Census  taking, 
even  if  they  do  no  more  than  study  forms,  methods,  and 
analyses,  connected  with  the  presentation  of  the  facts  of  the 
preceding  Census.  Money  would  be  saved,  results  would 
be  more  thoroughly  appreciated,  and  problems  would  be 
solved. 

Our  State  and  Federal  governments  should  be  vitally  inter- 
ested in  the  elevation  of  statistical  work  to  scientific  propor- 
tions ; for  the  necessary  outcome  of  the  application  of  civil 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


19 


service  principles  to  the  conduct  of  all  governmental  affairs 
lies  in  this,  that  as  the  affairs  of  the  people  become  more 
and  more  the  subjects  of  legislative  regulation  or  control,  the 
necessity  for  the  most  accurate  information  relating  to  such 
affairs  and  for  the  scientific  use  of  such  information  increases. 

The  extension  of  civil  service  principles  must  become  greater 
and  greater,  and  the  varied  demands  which  will  be  created  by 
their  growth  logically  become  more  exacting,  so  that  the  possi- 
bilities within  the  application  of  such  principles  are  therefore 
not  ideal,  but  practical  in  their  nature.  And  these  potential- 
ities in  the  near  future  will  enhance  the  value  of  the  services  of 
trained  statisticians. 

The  consular  and  diplomatic  service,  as  well  as  other  fields 
of  government  administration,  come  under  this  same  necessity. 
The  utilization  of  the  consular  service  for  original  investiga- 
tions creates  in  itself  a wide  reaching  statistical  force,  and  one 
which  should  be  competent  to  exercise  its  statistical  functions 
with  all  the  accuracy  that  belongs  to  science.  So  government 
should  supplement  college  training  with  practical  administra- 
tive instruction,  acquired  through  positive  service  in  its  own 
departments. 

This  appeal  that  statistical  science  be  taught  in  our  colleges 
comes  to  this  Association  more  forcibly  than  to  any  other. 
The  beginning  which  has  been  made  in  this  direction  in  this 
country  is  honorable  indeed.  Shall  it  be  supplemented  in  the 
great  universities  and  leading  colleges  of  America?  Do  not 
think  for  a moment  that  if  the  teaching  of  statistical  science  be 
incorporated  in  our  college  courses  the  country  will  be  flooded 
with  a body  of  statisticians.  There  is  enough  work  for  every 
man  who  understands  statistical  science.  He  need  not  be 
employed  by  government.  The  most  brilliant  achievements  of 
the  European  statisticians  have  been  secured  in  a private  or 
semi-official  way.  The  demand  will  equal  the  supply,  and  the 
demand  of  the  public  for  statistical  knowledge  grows  more  and 
more  positive,  and  the  supply  should  equal  the  demand. 

General  Walker  in  a letter  in  1874  said  : “ The  country  is 
hungry  for  information  : everything  of  a statistical  character, 
or  even  of  a statistical  appearance,  is  taken  up  with  an  eager- 
ness that  is  almost  pathetic ; the  community  have  not  yet 


20 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


learned  to  be  half  skeptical  and  critical  enough  in  respect  to 
such  statements.”  He  can  add,  Statistics  are  now  taken  up 
with  an  eagerness  that  is  serious. 

‘ 4 Know  thyself  ” applies  to  nations  as  well  as  to  men ; and 
that  nation  which  neglects  to  study  its  own  conditions,  or  fears 
to  study  its  own  conditions  in  the  most  searching  and  critical 
manner,  must  fall  into  retrogression.  If  there  is  an  evil,  let 
the  statistician  search  it  out ; by  searching  it  out  and  carefully 
analyzing  statistics,  he  may  be  able  to  solve  the  problem.  If 
there  is  a condition  that  is  wrong,  let  the  statistician  bring  his 
figures  to  bear  upon  it,  only  be  sure  that  the  statistician 
employed  cares  more  for  the  truth  than  he  does  for  sustaining 
any  preconceived  idea  of  what  the  solution  should  be.  A 
statistician  should  not  be  an  advocate,  for  he  cannot  work  scien- 
tifically if  he  is  working  to  an  end.  He  must  be  ready  to 
accept  the  results  of  his  study,  whether  they  suit  his  doctrine 
or  not.  The  colleges  in  this  connection  have  an  important  duty 
to  perform,  for  they  can  aid  in  ridding  the  public  of  the 
statistical  mechanic,  the  man  who  builds  tables  to  order  to 
prove  a desired  result.  These  men  have  lowered  the  standard 
of  statistical  science  by  the  empirical  use  of  its  forces. 

The  statistician  writes  history.  He  writes  it  in  the  most 
concrete  form  in  which  history  can  be  written,  for  he  shows  on 
tablets  all  that  makes  up  the  Commonwealth ; the  population 
with  its  varied  composition  ; the  manifold  activities  which  move 
it  to  advancement ; the  industries,  the  wealth,  the  means  for 
learning  and  culture,  the  evils  that  exist,  the  prosperity  that 
attends,  and  all  the  vast  proportions  of  the  comely  structure 
we  call  State.  Statistical  science  does  not  use  the  perishable 
methods  which  convey  to  posterity  as  much  of  the  vanity  of 
the  people,  as  of  the  reality  which  makes  the  Commonwealth 
of  today,  but  the  picture  is  set  in  cold,  enduring,  Arabic  char- 
acters, which  will  survive  through  the  centuries,  unchanged  and 
unchangeable  by  time,  by  accident,  or  by  decay.  It  uses  sym- 
bols which  have  unlocked  to  us  the  growth  of  the  periods  which 
make  up  our  past  — they  are  the  fitting  and  never  changing 
symbols  by  which  to  tell  the  story  of  our  present  state,  that 
when  the  age  we  live  in  becomes  the  past  of  successive  genera- 
tions of  men,  the  story  and  the  picture  shall  be  found  to  exist 


THE  STUDY  OF  STATISTICS  IN  COLLEGES. 


21 


in  all  the  just  proportions  in  which  it  was  set,  with  no  glowing 
sentences  to  charm  the  actual,  and  install  in  its  place  the  ideal ; 
with  no  fading  colors  to  deceive  and  lead  to  imaginative  repro- 
duction, but  symbols  set  in  dies  as  unvarying  and  as  truthful 
in  the  future  as  in  the  past.  The  statistician  chooses  a quiet 
and  may  be  an  unlovely  setting,  but  he  knows  it  will  endure 
through  all  time. 


- i’ : 


